Peak Hurricane Season Begins August 15, On Track to be 'Above Normal'

By Mary Ann Barton

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins this week and continues through October, is "on track to be above normal," representatives from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last week.

Maryland's most serious brushes in recent memory with hurricanes was Hurricane Irene, which hit August 27, 2011, and Hurricane Isabel on Sept. 19, 2003.

The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season—June 1 to Nov. 30—NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:

• 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
• 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
• 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster atNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”

NOAA National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Rick Knabb and senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown answered questions on Twitter Tuesday about tracking and forecasting potentially damaging storms and how best to prepare.

See a Storify recap of the discussion.